中国麻风皮肤病杂志 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (5): 336-343.doi: 10.12144/zgmfskin202605336

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

大疱性类天疱疮全球疾病负担的贝叶斯模型估算

解蓝宁1,2,3,王真真2,3,李洋1,2,3,李文超2,3,刘红2,3,张福仁2,3   

  1. 1山东大学齐鲁医学院公共卫生学院，山东济南，250012；2山东第一医科大学附属皮肤病医院，山东济南，250022；3山东省皮肤病性病防治研究所，山东济南，250022
  • 出版日期:2026-05-15 发布日期:2026-05-11

Bayesian model estimation of the global disease burden of bullous pemphigoid

XIE Lanning1,2,3, WANG Zhenzhen2,3, LI Yang1,2,3, LI Wenchao2,3, LIU Hong2,3, ZHANG Furen2,3   

  1. 1 School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China; 2 Dermatology Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Jinan 250022, China; 3 Shandong Provincial Institute of Dermatology and Venereology, Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan 250022, China
  • Online:2026-05-15 Published:2026-05-11

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摘要： 目的：定量估计大疱性类天疱疮（bullous pemphigoid,BP）在全球、区域和特定国家的流行病学负担。方法：系统检索有关BP的流行病学研究，构建贝叶斯层次线性混合效应模型，估计其在全球、区域和特定国家的发病率与新发病例数，并对患病率做描述性总结。结果：共55项研究符合纳入标准。模型估计显示，BP的全球发病率为17.75（10.69~25.92）/百万人年，年新发病例为143 628（86 501~209 738）例。发病率呈现显著地理差异。区域发病率从东南亚的1.19（0.00~4.00）/百万人年至东亚的28.05（17.50~41.00）/百万人年不等；国家层面，英国最高［48.75（35.78~62.89）/百万人年］，南非最低［1.13（0.00~4.00）/百万人年］。女性发病率是男性的1.22倍［23.85（15.50~33.17）/百万人年 vs. 19.48（11.92~28.17）/百万人年］。成人发病率［30.18（21.13~40.47）/百万人年］显著高于全年龄段人群［14.26（7.78~21.80）/百万人年］。诊断方法影响显著，免疫与病理联合诊断的发病率［18.65（11.38~27.00）/百万人年］高于单纯免疫诊断［11.92（6.00~18.86）/百万人年］。时间趋势上，2011-2025年发表研究的发病率［18.23（11.09~26.53）/百万人年］高于1975-2010年［17.06（10.10~25.04）/百万人年］。患病率亦呈地域异质性。结论：全球85.78%的国家缺乏BP流行病学数据。该疾病发病率存在显著的地域、性别及年龄差异，诊断标准影响BP发病率估算，提示该疾病监测体系有待标准化。从时间趋势来看，BP整体发病率呈上升态势。

关键词: 大疱性类天疱疮, 流行病学, 贝叶斯层次线性混合效应模型

Abstract: Objective: To quantitatively estimate the epidemiological burden of bullous pemphigoid (BP) at global, regional, and national levels. Methods: A systematic search for epidemiological studies on BP was conducted. A Bayesian hierarchical linear mixed model was constructed to estimate the incidence and number of new cases globally, regionally, and in specific countries, with a descriptive summary of prevalence. Results: A total of 55 studies met the inclusion criteria. Model estimates indicated a global BP incidence of 17.75 (10.69-25.92) per million person-years, corresponding to approximately 143 628 (86 501-209 738) new cases annually. Incidence showed marked geographic variation. Regional estimates ranged from 1.19 (0.00-4.00) per million person-years in Southeast Asia to 28.05 (17.50-41.00) per million person-years in East Asia. At the national level, the United Kingdom had the highest incidence ［48.75（35.78~62.89) per million person-years］, while South Africa had the lowest ［1.13 (0.00-4.00) per million person-years］. The incidence in females was 1.22 times that in males ［23.85 (15.50-33.17) per million person-years vs. 19.48 (11.92-28.17) per million person-years］. Incidence in adults ［30.18 (21.13-40.47) per million person-years］ was significantly higher than in all-age populations ［14.26 (7.78-21.80) per million person-years］. Diagnostic method influenced the estimates: the incidence estimated by combined immunological and pathological diagnosis ［18.65 (11.38-27.00) per million person-years］ was higher than that estimated by immunological diagnosis alone ［11.92 (6.00~18.86) per million person-years］. Temporally, incidence reported in studies published during 2011-2025 ［18.23 (11.09~26.53) per million person-years］ was higher than in those published during 1975-2010 ［17.06 (10.10~25.04) per million person-years］. Prevalence also exhibited considerable geographic heterogeneity. Conclusion: Epidemiological data on BP are lacking for 85.78% of countries worldwide. The disease shows significant disparities in incidence across geography, sex, and age. Variability in diagnostic criteria affects incidence estimation, which underscores the need for a standardized global surveillance system. Furthermore, long-term trend analyses suggest a rising incidence over time.

Key words: bullous pemphigoid, epidemiology, bayesian hierarchical linear mixed-effects model