中国麻风皮肤病杂志 ›› 2023, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (4): 242-247.doi: 10.12144/zgmfskin202304242

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

建立和验证带状疱疹患者后遗神经痛风险因素预测模型

王颖,赵伟,张朝霞,杜东红,杨青,杨宝琦,王娜,颜潇潇,吴卫志,潘付堂,周盛基,王广进,吴梅,于长平,施仲香,田洪青
  

  1. 山东第一医科大学附属皮肤病医院(山东省皮肤病医院)，山东省皮肤病性病防治研究所，山东济南，250022
  • 出版日期:2023-04-15 发布日期:2023-03-27

Establish and validate a predictive model of risk factors for postherpetic neuralgia in patients with herpes zoster based

WANG Ying, ZHAO Wei, ZHANG Zhaoxia, DU Donghong, YANG Qing, YANG Baoqi, WANG Na, YAN Xiaoxiao, WU Weizhi, PAN Futang, ZHOU Shengji, WANG Guangjin, WU Mei, YU Changping, SHI Zhongxiang, TIAN Hongqing   

  1. Shandong Provincial Hospital for Skin Diseases ＆ Shandong Provincial Institute of Dermatology and Venereology，Shandong First Medical University ＆ Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan 250022, China
  • Online:2023-04-15 Published:2023-03-27

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摘要： 目的：探索建立带状疱疹后遗神经痛（PHN）风险因素预测模型，并进行PHN高危因素分析。方法：回顾性分析了2017年3月至2021年12月本院收住院治疗的急性期带状疱疹患者，根据是否发生PHN将其分为两组。使用 LASSO 联合Logistic回归分析建立预测模型，并进行危险因素评价。结果：共有307例患者入选本研究，101例（32.8%）患者出现了PHN。应用LASSO联合Logistic回归分析筛选出以下独立危险因素：年龄≥50岁（OR值3.522，95%CI 1.631~7.606，P=0.001）、合并糖尿病史（OR值2.182，95%CI 1.073~4.438，P=0.031）、急性期皮损面积≥5%（OR值2.756，95%CI 1.426~5.327，P=0.003）、先驱痛（OR值2.233，95%CI 1.216~4.099，P=0.010）、急性期疼痛程度评分（NRS）≥6分（OR值10.724，95%CI 5.549~20.725，P＜0.001）。结论：年龄≥50岁、合并糖尿病史、急性期皮损面积≥5%、急性期先驱痛、急性期疼痛程度评分（NRS）≥6分为PHN发生的独立危险因素。

关键词: 带状疱疹, 后遗神经痛, 危险因素, 预测模型

Abstract: Objective: To screen the risk factors of post-herpetic neuralgia and establish an effective predictive model. Methods: The patients with acute herpes zoster treated in our hospital from March 2017 to December 2021 were divided into two groups according to the occurrence of residual neuralgia. The clinical data of the two groups were analyzed, and the risk factors were analyzed by LASSO combined with Logistic regression and the model was established. Results: This study enrolled 307 patients, of whom 101 (32.8%) developed PHN. Based on LASSO and logistic regression analysis, the independent risk factors in the model included age≥50 years old (OR value 3.522, 95%CI 1.631-7.606, P=0.001), combined with diabetes (OR value 2.182, 95%CI 1.073-4.438, P=0.031), acute skin lesion area≥5% (OR value 2.756, 95%CI 1.426-5.327, P=0.003), precursor pain (OR value 2.233, 95%CI 1.216-4.099, P=0.010), acute stage NRS score≥6 (OR value 10.724, 95%CI 5.549-20.725, P＜0.001).  Conclusion: The factors of age≥50 years old, complicated with diabetes, acute skin lesion area≥5%, precursor pain and acute stage NRS score≥6 can be considered as independent risk factors for post-herpetic neuralgia.

Key words: herpes zoster, sequela neuralgia, risk factors, regression model